![]() Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 ☌. Change 12, 36–46 (2022).Īdoption of the Paris Agreement by the President: Paris Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC, 2019) Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being. The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle. Global Resources Outlook 2019: Natural Resources for the Future we Want (UNEP, 2019) Ĭao, Z. Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector (IEA, 2021) On the materials basis of modern society. Alongside the large potential for recycling, our findings highlight the importance of demand reduction in meeting global climate targets. ![]() Lifetime extension offers a modest benefit, leading to a 3% reduction in emissions. Between now and 2060, improved scrap recovery cumulatively reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 10%, while more intensive use, resulting in reduced material demand, reduces emissions by 21%. Province-level results show that, while economic development initially drives up material demand, it also enables closed loops as demand approaches saturation levels. Here we show that, by 2060, China could source most of its required bulk materials through recycling, partially attributable to a declining population. Yet the emission savings resulting from circular economy strategies, such as improved scrap recovery, more intensive use and lifetime extension, remain underexplored. China, as the largest global producer of bulk materials, confronts formidable challenges in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions arising from their production.
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